Lead the way in the warming north, U of T experts say

Since Canada’s founding, the Arctic has played a major role in the country’s conception of itself. 

Now, a warming climate is changing the environment, the economy and the politics of the region. U of T researchers say that Canada needs to rise to the occasion or risk being left behind by international competitors.

“I think there is a need for a reconceptualization of how we view the Arctic,” says Aurel Braun, a professor of international relations and political science at U of T Mississauga and the St. George campus.

“It’s part of our identity. We need to understand that this is something that is crucial to us, in economic terms, in terms of national security, in terms of the environment,” he says.

The warming climate is opening up waterways for longer periods in the summer, which makes shipping and resource exploration more attractive. Within the century, it’s expected that there will be no sea ice during the summer months. This will make the Russia-adjacent Northern Sea Route an attractive route for Chinese manufacturers trying to reach European markets.

With an estimated 20 to 25 per cent of global fossil fuel reserves and suspected sources of rare earth minerals, the arctic is also potentially a rich source of resources. Handled wisely, these could be tapped to strengthen Canada’s economy, create jobs and bolster our standing in the world.

But to seize these opportunities, the country must be prepared to safeguard its interests. That means investing in the infrastructure, research and capabilities – military and otherwise – needed to operate effectively in one of the planet’s most challenging environments.

Securing Canada’s north

In doing so, Canada will face competition. Russia – in partnership with China, which has declared itself a “near-Arctic nation” – is moving aggressively to claim territory and build up military strength in the Arctic.

Braun says the Canadian government ought to finalize the purchase of F-35 stealth fighters that can evade Russian defenses. 

It also needs many more heavy ice breakers – right now it has just two, both built more than 40 years ago. (The federal government has ordered two new ones to be delivered by the early 2030s.) And Canada needs to expand its Arctic bases to provide the command, control and intelligence needed to support the military mission, he says.

“What we need is a real capacity to signal to the other side that violations of our sovereignty, negligent ecological behavior that can impact on our shores or reckless navigational practices can bring about real Canadian retaliation,” Braun says.

Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and the Belzberg Professor of Conflict Management in the department of political science, agrees that greater investment is needed in the Arctic.

“The security challenge, I think, is clear as Russia doubles down, triples down on the investments it’s making in the Arctic, and China describes itself as a near-Arctic power,” she says.

But the region, home to about 150,000, also needs civilian infrastructure, such as roads that connect isolated communities. She says that a new generation of Indigenous leaders is eager to lead the way. “They are saying, ‘We want to invest with you in our future. We want to be part of the development decisions that are made, the investment decisions that are made because we are the stewards of this land.’

“Canada will not be able to provide security in the Arctic if we don’t join up what we do from a military perspective with economic development, infrastructure development and climate mitigation measures,” Stein says.

Braun observes that one of the advantages of military expansion in the Arctic is that it automatically comes with the expansion of civilian infrastructure and the economy as new buildings, airfields and roads are built and maintained.

“There could be dual use of civilian and military infrastructure. Investing in these areas economically makes sense. And that would also make it much easier to have an appropriate military infrastructure. Militaries have to be supplied with food and services, and it helps if you have a stable population and skilled labour in the area,” he says.

Partnering with Indigenous Peoples

Sheryl Lightfoot is a professor in the department of political science and the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, and an expert in Indigenous rights and politics. She says that plans for the Arctic must include Indigenous people as partners. 

“A constitutional obligation, a duty to consult, is pretty well established,” she says. “The bigger the impact on the Indigenous people concerned, the more they should be involved in that decision making.”

Canada’s 70,000 Inuit, who live mostly in 51 Arctic communities, belong to a national Indigenous organization called Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, which also calls for more development in the region – as long as it respects Inuit rights. This includes military and dual-use infrastructure, but also roads, ports and communications systems, as well as better access to social services.

In a report called “An Inuit Vision for Arctic Sovereignty, Security and Defence,” the organization says that underinvestment in the region and the people leaves it vulnerable. It also makes it more likely that foreign players could step in to fill the infrastructure gaps in the Canadian Arctic and gain influence there, as Chinese companies have been doing recently to some extent in Greenland.

Stein also calls for more investment in Arctic research. Science can help us map out, monitor and understand the area better, as well as deal with the effects of climate change in the region.

One such researcher is Kent Moore, a professor of physics and atmospheric science at U of T Mississauga. He studies the effect of thinning sea ice on the Arctic climate. It requires him to travel to the Arctic in the dead of winter on research ships or aircraft.

“One thing I’m interested in is how energy is transferred between the ocean and the atmosphere. So we generally go out and fly quite low, 30 metres above the ocean surface in a storm, measuring the transfer of heat,” he says.

Why Arctic science matters

That kind of research is important for understanding fundamental atmospheric physics. It also has immediate use, such as understanding how thinning sea ice will affect shipping. For instance, thin ice moves more easily than thick ice, and may tend to pile up and threaten to trap vessels.

Research is also necessary to help preserve the ecosystems in the remaining areas of thick, multi-year ice. 

“I think everyone’s long-term hope is that eventually we’ll get our carbon emissions under control, and we’ll cool the planet down. And if we do that, hopefully sea ice will return to what it used to be like in the Arctic. These last areas of thick ice will become refuges where ice-dependent species such as polar bears and seals will be able to survive and hopefully repopulate the Arctic,” Moore says.

In fact, Stein thinks the research needs, including better ways of exploring and monitoring the Arctic, outweigh all others. 

“The biggest strategic challenge Canada faces over the next few years is to increase its knowledge of its own domains,” Stein says. “Before we worry about Russia, China and the United States, we need to know what’s under our waters, what’s on our waters, what’s under our land, what’s on our land, what’s in our air, and who’s over our space.”

For all the challenges, Stein sees this as a moment to act. Investing in the Arctic can simultaneously strengthen sovereignty, foster reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, drive sustainable economic growth and deepen Canada’s global reputation as a leader in climate science.

“We have an extraordinary opportunity,” she says. “The Arctic is central to our identity, but it is also central to our future. If we embrace that reality now, we can reshape the North in partnership with Indigenous Peoples in ways that benefit generations to come.”