Compliance with COVID-19 social distancing depends on expectations, new study shows

A new study based on social distancing measures in Italy shows that people’s intentions to comply with self-isolation depends on when they expect the measures to end based on how authorities communicate.

The study is co-authored by professors Nicola Lacetera of the University of Toronto Mississauga and Rotman School of Management, Mario Macis of Johns Hopkins University, Mirco Tonin of Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, and Guglielmo Briscese of the University of Chicago. It was published online by the National Bureau of Economic Research on March 30, and is based on a survey of Italians conducted by SWG, a leading market research firm, on March 18 to 20. 

Italy initially announced school closures and limitations to people’s ability to leave their homes for about a month, and two weeks for the closing of commercial activities. However, as COVID-19 cases continue to rise, Italy (and other countries) are considering extensions to their lockdown measures. Meanwhile, politicians and commentators are debating whether the extension should be in place for an additional specified period or until further notice.

The study found that if extensions to the measures are shorter than anticipated, people are more willing to increase their self-isolation. In contrast, if extensions are longer than expected people are less willing to comply.

“In a context where individual compliance has collective benefits, but full enforcement is costly and controversial, communication and persuasion have a fundamental role. Our findings provide insights to public authorities on how to announce lockdown measures and manage people’s expectations,” say the authors.

The complete study is online at www.nber.org/papers/w26916.