Anti-immigrant sentiment on the rise in young people, UTM research suggests

High rents and limited home ownership prospects, combined with negative statements by politicians and related media coverage, may be leading young people to link immigration to their economic concerns, new research from the University of Toronto Mississauga suggests.

The findings are laid out in a paper by UTM political science associate professor Randy Besco and PhD student Natasha Goel, published by the Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation.

“It was a surprise, because traditionally, we always think that older people tend to be more conservative and not supportive of immigration,” said Besco. “And that's really not what is happening.”

Titled “Who Changed Their Minds? Two Shifts in Canadian Public Opinion on Immigration: 1995-2005 and 2023-24,” the research examined survey data collected over more than 40 years to compare shifts in opinions of different demographic groups.

Besco said he had been hearing from pollsters anecdotally that opinions on immigration were changing, but didn’t believe it until he reviewed annual Environics Institute surveys taken between 1981 to 2024, in which respondents were asked to rate the phrase “overall there is too much immigration into Canada” on a scale ranging from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree.”

The most recent surveys showed shifts in several key demographic categories: there is now more anti-immigration sentiment among Anglophones, women and young people aged 18-29 than there has been in the last two decades.

Canadian public opinion on immigration has only shifted this dramatically twice in the past 30 years, said Besco.

A strong desire to reduce immigration in the 1980s was followed by a pro-immigration shift in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This led to 15 years of stability before sentiments became more negative in 2023 and 2024.

The 2024 survey found the number of respondents who “strongly agreed” there was too much immigration had more than doubled since 2015.

These types of flips are “not common,” said Besco.

“The polls are usually subject to short-term shifts only when there are major events or sustained media coverage,” he said. “And such swings usually reverse quickly, but not this time.”

Older Canadians have typically been less positive about immigrants but the latest surveys indicate higher levels of opposition among younger respondents. 

Besco said the change may reflect concerns about housing affordability, which disproportionately affects younger people.

Statements by politicians may be partially to blame, said Besco, pointing to federal Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre’s criticism of Liberal immigration policy as an example.

Poilievre blamed the governing Liberals’ policy for increases in housing prices. That message was bolstered by increasingly negative sentiments from U.S. politicians, and media coverage of Bank of Canada reports that pointed to population growth as a driver of rising rental prices.

“This is not just people on the right complaining, it's also people on the left saying there's a problem,” said Besco of what he saw in the surveys. “Understanding this recent unusual reversal of public opinion is important.”

He cited a surge in immigration under then-prime minister Justin Trudeau as another factor in the 2023-24 change. 

Public opinion backlash put pressure on politicians to address concerns. The 2025 federal budget included a 21 per cent drop in the target for new permanent residents in 2025, with further decreases planned into 2027, as well as stricter rules for temporary workers and international students.

It’s unclear if the recent shifts in public opinion will last, Besco’s paper indicates. High housing costs are likely to remain an important issue, but how strongly that continues to be linked in public opinions to immigration remains to be seen.

What’s clear, however, is that Canadians do not default to always being pro-immigration, said Besco.

“Canada has long had a reputation for being tolerant, multicultural and pro-immigration, like it’s something in our DNA, just a feature of being Canadian,” Besco said. “That's obviously not true.”